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Churn

Churn is the rate at which a business loses customers or recurring revenue over a period. Customer churn and revenue churn can tell very different stories.

Also called revenue churn

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Definition

Churn is the rate at which a business loses customers or recurring revenue over a period, usually a month or a year. Customer churn counts the customers who leave, while revenue churn measures the recurring revenue lost to cancellations and, in some definitions, downgrades. The two can tell different stories when customers pay very different amounts.

Recurring revenue

Recurring revenue comes back without being won again each time, through subscriptions, retainers or service contracts. Contracted revenue is the part committed for a fixed term.

Worked example

Tidewell is a fictional Australian subscription software business with 1,000 customers and MRR of A$100,000 at the start of a month.

During the month, 30 small customers cancel, taking A$1,500 of MRR with them. One large customer paying A$3,000 a month also leaves.

  • Customer churn: 31 customers out of 1,000 = 3.1% for the month.
  • Revenue churn: A$4,500 out of A$100,000 = 4.5% for the month.

The single large customer does more damage to revenue than the 30 small ones combined.

Monthly recurring revenue (MRR)

Monthly recurring revenue is the subscription revenue a business expects to bill in a normal month. Its monthly movements show where growth comes from and where it leaks away.

Why buyers care

A business with high churn must keep winning new customers just to stand still, and small monthly rates compound into a large share of revenue over a year. That makes growth expensive and fragile under a new owner.

Ask for churn by month for at least two years, split by plan and by customer cohort, and check it against cancellations in the billing system. Be wary of churn figures that leave out customers who cancel in their first month or two, or of a recent improvement that coincides with the sale. In Loupe's valuation tool, low monthly revenue churn raises the multiple for SaaS businesses and high churn lowers it.

  • Net revenue retention

    Net revenue retention compares the recurring revenue from existing customers now with the same customers a year earlier, including upgrades, downgrades and cancellations.

  • Monthly recurring revenue (MRR)

    Monthly recurring revenue is the subscription revenue a business expects to bill in a normal month. Its monthly movements show where growth comes from and where it leaks away.

  • Annual recurring revenue (ARR)

    Annual recurring revenue is the yearly value of subscription or contracted revenue expected to repeat, measured at a point in time. Software businesses are often priced as a multiple of it.

  • Recurring revenue

    Recurring revenue comes back without being won again each time, through subscriptions, retainers or service contracts. Contracted revenue is the part committed for a fixed term.

  • Customer lifetime value

    Customer lifetime value estimates the total gross profit a business earns from an average customer over the whole relationship. It is a model built on assumptions, not a record.

  • Customer acquisition cost

    Customer acquisition cost is the average sales and marketing spend needed to win one new customer over a period. It shows whether growth can be repeated and at what price.

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  • Rising churn, refunds or chargebacks

    Customers leaving faster, asking for their money back or disputing payments are early signs that revenue will shrink, often before the headline numbers show it.

    Severity: price it inCustomers and revenue
  • Heavy discounting to hit targets

    Revenue bought with deep discounts, cut-price prepaid deals or stock pushed onto resellers flatters the final year before a sale and is unlikely to last.

    Severity: price it inCustomers and revenue
  • See a low, likely and high value from the figures you have, and whether the asking price holds up.

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